Brexit remains the heaviest cloud on the horizon
/By Lissa Oliver
This is now the third update on Brexit we have carried and we could easily reprint the first, from March 2018; so little has changed or moved forward. Alarmingly, the bleak 2018 predictions from those involved at the highest level have come to bear, yet Britain and the EU have appeared to turn a blind eye to the prospect of a no-deal Brexit until the last possible moment. While we look at the current views and contingency plans of individual countries most affected, it is clear that their problems are shared by all, and a common thread runs throughout.
EEA nationals and UK nationals
We all need to be aware of how Brexit will affect our freedom of movement and right to live and work throughout Europe and the UK. Any EEA national with five years continuous residence in the UK can apply for Permanent Residence to protect them from future legislative changes. Applicants must have been resident and in employment, or self-employment, for five years; and it is recommended to apply before the official date of Brexit.
There are strong indications that the current Common Travel Area of the UK and Ireland is likely to remain, to enable Irish nationals to move freely and work in the UK, but this remains unconfirmed; and it is recommended that Irish nationals living and working in the UK apply for Permanent Residence.
The EU has yet to decide how UK nationals living and working in the EEA will be treated. They may qualify for Permanent Residence in the applicable country and are advised to make an application prior to the UK’s withdrawal from Europe.
France
Edouard Philippe
The economy of the French equine sector is driven by horseracing, sports and leisure, work, and horse meat production. While the sports and recreation sector is responsible for the majority of horses (68%), horseracing has the largest economic impact and financial flow (90%), for only 18% of the horse population, and will be the most affected by Brexit.
The start of the year found France preparing for a disaster scenario, and the view hasn’t softened. Prime Minister Édouard Philippe has told press,
“The hypothesis of a Brexit without agreement is less and less improbable. Our responsibility is to ensure that our country is ready and to protect the interests of our fellow citizens.”
In January he initiated a no-deal Brexit plan prepared in April 2018. Philippe’s priority is to protect French expatriate employees and the British living in France in anticipation of the restoration of border control.
Fishing is considered the business sector most at risk, but Philippe has also looked to protect the thoroughbred industry with a €50m investment in ports and airports, where 700 customs officers, veterinary controllers and other state agents have been added—in the hope of avoiding administrative delays. He told press,
“It will be necessary that there are again controls in Calais.”
Dr Paul-Marie Gadot, France Galop, is also working to avoid delays at the border posts. "The political negotiation is still going on, as you know, and as long as it lasts we will not get agreement on the movement of horses. We have prepared for two years, with our Irish and English counterparts, a technical solution—the High Health Horse status—which would allow thoroughbreds and the horses of the Fédération Equestre Internationale to benefit from a lighter control.
“This organisational scheme was presented to the Irish, UK and French Ministries of Agriculture, and we received their support. It was also introduced to the International Office of Epizootics, which is WHO for animals, and it was very favourably received. We have presented it to the European Commission, but we are not getting a favourable answer at this time.
“In the absence of agreement, border control will be put in place. This means for the public authorities and the European Commission the implementation of ‘Border Inspection Posts’ with the ability to process movements. Our departments are very aware that this situation will be very difficult to manage without endangering the economic activity and the well-being of horses. We are working on palliative solutions, but I strongly fear that the situation is unmanageable.”
Gadot points out there are 25,000 horse movements per year between Ireland, the UK and France, and any hindering of these movements would be a blow to international racing and participation and to the breeding industry. Any challenge to the current freedom of movement could also threaten sales companies such as Arqana, where Irish and British-bred horses are catalogued, and Irish and British buyers are active.
Germany
The Haile Institute for Economic Research reveals that a hard Brexit will hit employment in Germany the hardest, with an estimated loss of 102,900 jobs; although that is just 0.24% of the country’s total employment figure. With its thoroughbred industry barely figuring in any economic impact, it is little wonder that Germany’s sport-related concerns focus on football. But the issues facing Britain’s Premiership are similar to racing’s problems and also heavily tied to Ireland.
Currently, as per EU law, Britain’s Premier League clubs are allowed to have as many EU players in a team as they wish, but a minimum of eight players in a 25-player team must be British. Elsewhere, Portugal limits non-EU players to just three per top flight team, with none allowed in the lower leagues. Italy also has restrictive rules on the purchase of non-EU players. If German football managers are concerned by the effect Brexit will have on the transfer market, how worried should British trainers be at the prospect of similarly curtailed recruitment?
And the concerns of German trainers? These are not being highlighted by the general press or by the government, but German racing and breeding are fairly self-contained and self-sufficient. How many British and Irish-bred horses are catalogued at the BBAG, however, and what percentage sell to Britain and Ireland? Ireland may still be in the EU, but its landbridge will not be come October.
At the 2019 BBAG Yearling Sale, five British-bred yearlings were catalogued and 18 Irish-bred—four of which were offered by an Irish agent. The top five lots at the 2018 sale were purchased by Godolphin, Peter and Ross Doyle Bloodstock and Meridian Bloodstock; and the sixth highest-priced yearling was foaled in the UK, as was the ninth in the listings. Fetching €110,000 and €100,000 further down the list were two Irish-foaled colts, both bought by German agents. The marketplace is cosmopolitan, and no market can afford to lose two supplier links or two buyer links.
Sweden
Swedish trade minister Ann Linde warns that a no-deal Brexit could have major implications for the country, which has a prosperous trading relationship with Britain. “The big companies have the possibility to analyse what is happening and prepare themselves, but there are too many small and medium-sized companies which have not fully prepared,” she points out. The Swedish National Board of Trade has sent out checklists to companies to work through to understand the consequences of a no-deal Brexit.
Linde is also concerned for the futures of 100,000 Swedes living in Britain and 30,000 Britons living in Sweden. Hans Dahlgren, the Secretary of State for Exiting the EU, fears it is unclear how the new British government will treat EU citizens who want to move to the UK for work after 31 October.
"The previous British government had made some openings for people coming to the UK after Brexit, and those statements have not yet been endorsed by the new government," he said.
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