Brexit remains the heaviest cloud on the horizon
By Lissa Oliver
This is now the third update on Brexit we have carried and we could easily reprint the first, from March 2018; so little has changed or moved forward. Alarmingly, the bleak 2018 predictions from those involved at the highest level have come to bear, yet Britain and the EU have appeared to turn a blind eye to the prospect of a no-deal Brexit until the last possible moment. While we look at the current views and contingency plans of individual countries most affected, it is clear that their problems are shared by all, and a common thread runs throughout.
EEA nationals and UK nationals
We all need to be aware of how Brexit will affect our freedom of movement and right to live and work throughout Europe and the UK. Any EEA national with five years continuous residence in the UK can apply for Permanent Residence to protect them from future legislative changes. Applicants must have been resident and in employment, or self-employment, for five years; and it is recommended to apply before the official date of Brexit.
There are strong indications that the current Common Travel Area of the UK and Ireland is likely to remain, to enable Irish nationals to move freely and work in the UK, but this remains unconfirmed; and it is recommended that Irish nationals living and working in the UK apply for Permanent Residence.
The EU has yet to decide how UK nationals living and working in the EEA will be treated. They may qualify for Permanent Residence in the applicable country and are advised to make an application prior to the UK’s withdrawal from Europe.
France
Edouard Philippe
The economy of the French equine sector is driven by horseracing, sports and leisure, work, and horse meat production. While the sports and recreation sector is responsible for the majority of horses (68%), horseracing has the largest economic impact and financial flow (90%), for only 18% of the horse population, and will be the most affected by Brexit.
The start of the year found France preparing for a disaster scenario, and the view hasn’t softened. Prime Minister Édouard Philippe has told press,
“The hypothesis of a Brexit without agreement is less and less improbable. Our responsibility is to ensure that our country is ready and to protect the interests of our fellow citizens.”
In January he initiated a no-deal Brexit plan prepared in April 2018. Philippe’s priority is to protect French expatriate employees and the British living in France in anticipation of the restoration of border control.
Fishing is considered the business sector most at risk, but Philippe has also looked to protect the thoroughbred industry with a €50m investment in ports and airports, where 700 customs officers, veterinary controllers and other state agents have been added—in the hope of avoiding administrative delays. He told press,
“It will be necessary that there are again controls in Calais.”
Dr Paul-Marie Gadot, France Galop, is also working to avoid delays at the border posts. "The political negotiation is still going on, as you know, and as long as it lasts we will not get agreement on the movement of horses. We have prepared for two years, with our Irish and English counterparts, a technical solution—the High Health Horse status—which would allow thoroughbreds and the horses of the Fédération Equestre Internationale to benefit from a lighter control.
“This organisational scheme was presented to the Irish, UK and French Ministries of Agriculture, and we received their support. It was also introduced to the International Office of Epizootics, which is WHO for animals, and it was very favourably received. We have presented it to the European Commission, but we are not getting a favourable answer at this time.
“In the absence of agreement, border control will be put in place. This means for the public authorities and the European Commission the implementation of ‘Border Inspection Posts’ with the ability to process movements. Our departments are very aware that this situation will be very difficult to manage without endangering the economic activity and the well-being of horses. We are working on palliative solutions, but I strongly fear that the situation is unmanageable.”
Gadot points out there are 25,000 horse movements per year between Ireland, the UK and France, and any hindering of these movements would be a blow to international racing and participation and to the breeding industry. Any challenge to the current freedom of movement could also threaten sales companies such as Arqana, where Irish and British-bred horses are catalogued, and Irish and British buyers are active.
Germany
The Haile Institute for Economic Research reveals that a hard Brexit will hit employment in Germany the hardest, with an estimated loss of 102,900 jobs; although that is just 0.24% of the country’s total employment figure. With its thoroughbred industry barely figuring in any economic impact, it is little wonder that Germany’s sport-related concerns focus on football. But the issues facing Britain’s Premiership are similar to racing’s problems and also heavily tied to Ireland.
Currently, as per EU law, Britain’s Premier League clubs are allowed to have as many EU players in a team as they wish, but a minimum of eight players in a 25-player team must be British. Elsewhere, Portugal limits non-EU players to just three per top flight team, with none allowed in the lower leagues. Italy also has restrictive rules on the purchase of non-EU players. If German football managers are concerned by the effect Brexit will have on the transfer market, how worried should British trainers be at the prospect of similarly curtailed recruitment?
And the concerns of German trainers? These are not being highlighted by the general press or by the government, but German racing and breeding are fairly self-contained and self-sufficient. How many British and Irish-bred horses are catalogued at the BBAG, however, and what percentage sell to Britain and Ireland? Ireland may still be in the EU, but its landbridge will not be come October.
At the 2019 BBAG Yearling Sale, five British-bred yearlings were catalogued and 18 Irish-bred—four of which were offered by an Irish agent. The top five lots at the 2018 sale were purchased by Godolphin, Peter and Ross Doyle Bloodstock and Meridian Bloodstock; and the sixth highest-priced yearling was foaled in the UK, as was the ninth in the listings. Fetching €110,000 and €100,000 further down the list were two Irish-foaled colts, both bought by German agents. The marketplace is cosmopolitan, and no market can afford to lose two supplier links or two buyer links.
Sweden
Swedish trade minister Ann Linde warns that a no-deal Brexit could have major implications for the country, which has a prosperous trading relationship with Britain. “The big companies have the possibility to analyse what is happening and prepare themselves, but there are too many small and medium-sized companies which have not fully prepared,” she points out. The Swedish National Board of Trade has sent out checklists to companies to work through to understand the consequences of a no-deal Brexit.
Linde is also concerned for the futures of 100,000 Swedes living in Britain and 30,000 Britons living in Sweden. Hans Dahlgren, the Secretary of State for Exiting the EU, fears it is unclear how the new British government will treat EU citizens who want to move to the UK for work after 31 October.
"The previous British government had made some openings for people coming to the UK after Brexit, and those statements have not yet been endorsed by the new government," he said.
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The growing pattern - how and why new races have been added
Very few ideas for radical change in horseracing are either universally popular or accepted at the first time of asking. And that’s if a single authority is involved. When a group of nations, some of which have a history of antipathy, bordering on hostility, towards each other’s proposals, come together to examine a programme of alterations, the chances of a speedy and amicable resolution are even slimmer.
Howard Wright (European Trainer - issue 7 - Spring 2004)
Very few ideas for radical change in horseracing are either universally popular or accepted at the first time of asking. And that’s if a single authority is involved. When a group of nations, some of which have a history of antipathy, bordering on hostility, towards each other’s proposals, come together to examine a programme of alterations, the chances of a speedy and amicable resolution are even slimmer.
Something rare happened, therefore, over the last quarter of 2003, which led to January’s announcement by the European Pattern Committee of a greatly expanded programme of Group 1 and 2 races for fillies in 2004. The bare facts are that three separate layers of opportunity confined to higher-grade fillies of three years and upwards have been created and will be contested this year.
As far as the top two Pattern groups are concerned, they break down into three distance categories - a mile, ten furlongs and a mile and a half. Furthermore, the aim has been achieved to provide a steady flow of opportunities, approximately one a month, across Europe from the end of May to the beginning or end of October in the shorter-distance brackets, and from the beginning of July in the longest. In addition, the authorities in Britain and Ireland have sought to build on the framework by enhancing opportunities just below the very highest grade, so that Ireland will have two more Group 3 races, and Britain will have five, in keeping with the overall strength of its current horse population. Behind the creation of what amounts to a pattern within the Pattern, confined solely to fillies and mares, lies an unprecedented intent to do something about a growing European problem, and a remarkable determination to do it quickly.
No time to let the grass grow here, seemed to be the underlying thought, even though caution was raised in some quarters. The ultimate objective was simple: to produce a programme of races throughout the year that would act as encouragement to owners of higher-grade older fillies to keep them in training in Europe. The lure of the US dollar has grown ever more powerful, and with prize-money stacking up high, turf horses have exited Europe with damaging regularity. Cash led the call for colts; lack of suitable opportunities appeared to be a more dominant force for taking away fillies. It didn’t take a genius to fire the European Pattern Committee into thinking that something had to be done. But what? Give the fillies something to aim at, that’s what. And the 2004 programme is the resulting magnet.
Already the radical steps appear to have had an effect. Russian Rhythm, Soviet Song and Favourable Terms in Britain; Six Perfections and Nebraska Tornado in France; Echoes In Eternity from Godolphin: they have all stayed in training as four-year-olds, and the new programme has been cited as part of the persuasion. Each one is out of the top drawer, but in any other year, it is doubtful if all six would have been kept for another season.
But 2004 will not be ‘any other year.’ Jason Morris, racing director at Horse Racing Ireland, is understandably delighted at the response. “This was precisely the aim of the initiative,” he says, adding that the newly elevated Irish races should draw the horses, and bring in the crowds. The reasoning of Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford is impossible to fault. “It’s good news for owners of fillies that have sufficient quality to compete against each other in the top class,” he says. “It has certainly encouraged us to keep Echoes In Eternity in Europe rather than send her to the US, because it makes it easier to plan her programme. She can go to America later in the season.” Favourable Terms is perhaps the least well known of the six named here, but her career lends as much credibility to the new programme as any other. Owner-bred by Maktoum Al Maktoum, she did not race until May last year, and ended the season having won three out of five starts for Sir Michael Stoute, including the Group 2 Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. She would have been a prime candidate for the paddocks in any other year, but it bears repeating that this is not ‘any other year.’ For one thing, the Matron Stakes now has Group 1 status, and who would bet against Favourable Terms attempting a follow-up, now that the opportunities are there to test her rate of improvement? The decision that Six Perfections, for one, would stay in training as a four-year-old was made public within hours of her winning the Breeders Cup Mile.
The European Pattern Committee had set the late-October international meeting at Santa Anita as its first deadline to tell the bloodstock world the bare bones at least of its plan for fillies. They reasoned that owners of the fillies they were targeting, especially those with permanent racing and breeding careers in the US in mind, would be making their own plans by then. Their urgency apparently worked, for trainer Pascal Bary said at the time: “It’s wonderful news for me, my staff and the racing public that the Niarchos family has decided to keep Six Perfections in training, and no doubt the changes to the programme were taken into consideration.” That the framework for the changes was announced in October at all was a departure from normal practice. The European Pattern Committee usually gets its individual thoughts together in the autumn, to be crystallised at the annual meeting in December or early-January. Last year, the committee decided in July that it would set up a sub-group to look at the fillies’ programme, with a view to reporting to the annual meeting in January 2004. They thought there was room for improvement, especially among the older age bracket and particularly in the early part of the season. The sub-group met within two months, and suddenly the mood for change picked up a head of steam, with the French and Irish teams leading the charge, and Britain erring on the side of caution with a plea for a phased introduction of the radical alterations. By the middle of September it had been decided that tinkering with a few races was not enough; there should be a greatly enhanced programme, especially in Groups 1 and 2, and that it if it was to happen at all, it should happen immediately.
The European Pattern Committee met in London a month later, just ahead of the Breeders Cup meeting, and a raft of changes were agreed, taking in all three groups and the trio of distance categories. The Group 1 and 2 details were made public in the second week of December, and the die was cast. In less than six months the mood of the committee had gone from exploratory to explosion. The new races and upgrades have been given three years to prove their worth. If any race does not meet the required ratings parameters, it will be downgraded, without the warning that is given to other Pattern races under the ground rules. Ruth Quinn, the BHB’s director of racing, who played a full part in the process, believes the overall benefits could take that long to work through. “It’s fantastic that the new programme already seems to be having an effect,” she says, “but it has been created with the longer term in mind, and we need to build up a pool of better-class fillies in Europe.” Quinn also believes the outstanding fillies will still take on the colts in the traditional Group 1 races, particularly those over a mile, such as the Prix Jacques le Marois and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. “We didn’t want to create a complete mirror image of the colts’ programme, as they have in the US,” she says, “but we had to make a great deal of improvement in the fillies’ programme if we want to stem the constant flow to the States.”
Philip Freedman, owner of the Cliveden Stud and chairman of the BHB’s Flat Race Advisory Panel, which feeds its thoughts and expertise into the European Pattern Committee, has already seen evidence that the ploy is working. His US trainer Christophe Clement has received fewer European-trained older fillies this winter, and has jokingly suggested he is being put out of business. Freedman, who acknowledges the efforts of a Thoroughbred Breeders Association group chaired by Bill Paton-Smith in first bringing the fillies’ cause to attention, accepts there could be a downside to the enhancements, as owners face greater temptation to keep the best to the company of their own sex. However, he looks to the bigger picture. “We may have to face up to a slightly less competitive Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, for instance, but if the changes to the programme were going to work, it had to be done as a big project,” he reasons. “Adding one or two races wouldn’t have had the same impact. “While I would have been equally happy if, say, the Sun Chariot Stakes had not gone up to Group 1, if we accept that we are running the fillies’ programme as a separate entitity to the colts’, it makes sense for the Sun Chariot to be upgraded. There had to be a logical programme.” The next three years will determine how successful the original logic was. Howard Wright is a member of the BHB Flat Race Advisory Panel.
Howard Wright (European Trainer - issue 7 - Spring 2004)